Pre-Sale vs Resale Condos: Where the Real Pain Is in Today’s Market

When people talk about the condo market, they often treat it as one single thing. In reality, there are two very different markets operating at the same time:

• Pre-sale (new construction)
• Resale (existing condos)

Most of the headlines you see focus on pre-construction. But for those of us working on the ground—especially in markets like Surrey and across Greater Vancouver—the resale market is where most real transactions are happening.And right now, the difference between those two segments is massive.

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The Pre-Sale Market: Where Losses Are the Highest

The most significant pain in today’s condo market is coming from pre-construction buyers who purchased during the peak of 2021 to early 2023.These buyers:

• Paid a premium compared to resale values at the time
• Are now completing purchases in a very different market
• Are often facing major valuation gaps

In some real-world cases:

• Units purchased around $900,000 are now worth closer to $600,000

That represents:

• Losses of 20% to 40% in some situations

For many buyers, that means:

• Their entire deposit is effectively wiped out
• They may need to bring additional cash to close
• Some may not be able to complete the purchase at all

Because many of these transactions happen off-market through assignments, the full scope of these losses isn’t always visible in public data—but they are very real.

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The Resale Market: A Different Type of Pressure

On the resale side, the situation is still challenging, but not nearly as extreme.Buyers who purchased at the peak—roughly between March 2021 and March 2022—are now typically:

• Down 15% to 25% on paper

However, the monthly cost picture tells a slightly different story.Because:

• Mortgage rates have shifted
• Some buyers locked in lower rates earlier
• Costs like strata fees and property taxes have increased

The true monthly impact for many owners may feel closer to:

• 5% to 10% in effective affordability loss

That’s still significant—but it’s not the same level of shock seen in the pre-sale market.

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Why People Are Still Selling

Even in a down market, people still need to make life decisions.What we’re seeing—both nationally and in places like Surrey—is a mix of motivations:

• Some sellers are accepting losses to move forward with life changes
• Some are upsizing despite market conditions because the math still works
• Others are selling and temporarily renting to reset

Interestingly, for many end users, upsizing in a declining market can still make sense.If both your condo and your next home have dropped in value:

• The gap between them may actually be smaller

That creates opportunity—if you can execute the move.

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The People Who Are Stuck

Not everyone has flexibility.There’s a growing group of owners who:

• Bought near the peak
• Have little to no equity
• Cannot comfortably sell

For these homeowners:

• Selling may mean taking a significant loss
• They may not have the cash to close that gap
• Their only real option is to hold and wait

Some are fine with that.Others feel stuck.

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The “Move On With Life” Sellers

Another group is taking a different approach entirely.Instead of waiting years for recovery, they are:

• Accepting today’s market reality
• Selling their property
• Renting short-term while they reassess

This is becoming more common as:

• Mortgage renewals approach
• Financial pressure increases
• Life changes take priority over timing the market

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What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, this creates a unique environment.There is:

• More selection than we’ve seen in years
• Less urgency
• More negotiating power

But it’s not a “fire sale” market.Most properties are still:

• Trading close to their adjusted market value
• Reflecting realistic pricing rather than extreme discounts

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My Take (From Surrey)

From what I’m seeing in the Surrey condo market, this split between pre-sale and resale is critical to understand.

• Pre-sale buyers are under the most pressure
• Resale owners are adjusting, but still transacting
• Buyers are cautious, but active

The biggest shift is mindset.We’ve moved from a market driven by speculation to one driven by:

• Livability
• Long-term ownership
• Real financial decision-making

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Key Takeaways

• The condo market is split between pre-sale and resale dynamics
• Pre-sale buyers from 2021–2023 are facing the largest losses
• Resale owners are down but still able to transact
• Some sellers are choosing to move forward rather than wait
• Others are stuck due to limited equity
• Buyers have more choice but remain selective

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Final Thought

Not all downturns are created equal.What we’re seeing right now is a correction that is hitting different parts of the market in very different ways.The pre-sale market is absorbing the biggest shock.The resale market is adjusting.And the decisions people make today—whether to sell, hold, or move—are less about timing the market and more about aligning with real life.

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Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty