Is Another Housing Boom Coming? Why Today’s Market Could Set Up the Next Surge

It might not feel like it right now—but we may already be setting up the next real estate boom.Because if you zoom out and look at what’s happening in today’s market, the pattern is starting to look very familiar.In fact, it’s starting to look a lot like what happened in the early 2010s.And if that comparison holds?👉 The current downturn could be laying the groundwork for a major price surge in the years ahead.

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The Pattern: Boom → Bust → Boom Again

Here’s what we’ve seen:

• A massive run-up in prices during the pandemic
• A sharp correction across most markets
• Slowing demand and falling prices

Sound familiar?Because we’ve seen this before.Back in the early 2010s:

• Prices flattened for several years
• Supply slowed dramatically
• And then… demand came roaring back

👉 From 2015 to 2019, prices surged roughly 50% across BCThe question now is:Are we setting up for the same cycle again?

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The Critical Factor Nobody Is Talking About: Supply

Right now, everyone is focused on falling prices and weak demand.But the real story is happening behind the scenes:👉 Construction is slowing downHere’s why that matters:

• Developers can’t sell → they stop building
• Investors pull back → fewer pre-sales
• New housing starts decline

At the same time:👉 Existing inventory is still being absorbedOver time, that creates a dangerous setup:

• Less new supply coming
• Existing inventory gets sold off
• And suddenly… there’s nothing left

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What Happens When Supply Dries Up

This is where things get interesting.Even with normal demand, if supply gets tight enough:👉 Prices start rising again—fastIn fact, most forecasting models show exactly this:

• Supply slows significantly over the next 3–5 years
• Inventory gets absorbed
• Even modest demand creates upward pressure

👉 That’s how you go from a slow market… to a surge.

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What Could Trigger the Next Boom?

Here’s the part nobody can predict—but history gives us clues.The last major surge wasn’t just local.It was triggered by global factors:

• Oil prices collapsed
• Interest rates dropped sharply
• The Canadian dollar weakened
• Foreign investment increased

That combination created supercharged demand.

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The Reality: The Next Catalyst Will Be Unexpected

It likely won’t be obvious until it happens.Possible triggers could include:

• Interest rates dropping again
• A major economic shift
• Increased productivity (AI, technology, etc.)
• Population or immigration changes
• Global capital flows

👉 The key point:The next boom won’t be planned—it will be triggered.

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Why This Matters Right Now

Here’s the risk most people are missing:👉 We could be heading into a period where:

• Construction slows dramatically
• Inventory gets absorbed
• And then demand returns unexpectedly

If that happens:👉 Prices won’t just recover—they could accelerate quickly

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What I’m Seeing on the Ground

From what I’m seeing working with buyers and sellers across the Fraser Valley—including Surrey and Langley—we’re clearly in the “slow” phase of the cycle.

• Buyers are cautious
• Sellers are adjusting expectations
• Developers are pulling back

But this is exactly what typically happens before supply tightens.

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The Risk for Buyers (and Sellers)

If you’re waiting for the “perfect” time:👉 You may get it in the short termBut longer term?👉 You risk missing the next upswing.And if history repeats:

• The shift won’t be gradual
• It will happen quickly
• And it will catch most people off guard

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Key Takeaways

• Today’s market downturn is real—but likely temporary
• Construction slowdowns are setting up future supply shortages
• Past cycles show similar patterns leading to major price increases
• The next boom will likely be triggered by an unexpected macro event
• Timing the bottom perfectly is extremely difficult

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My Take

Right now, we’re in the uncomfortable part of the cycle.

• Prices are soft
• Sentiment is negative
• Uncertainty is high

But underneath all of that:👉 The next phase is already being builtOr more accurately…👉 Not being built—and that’s the problem.

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Final Thought

Real estate cycles don’t end—they reset.And if this really is following the early 2010s pattern, then what we’re experiencing today may not be the end of the story.It may just be the setup.

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Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty