The Slowest Real Estate Market in Decades? What’s Really Happening in BC

Just how slow has the real estate market been over the past year?According to Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist at the BCREA:👉 It may have been the slowest year for home sales this centuryIn markets like the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver, sales activity dropped to levels we haven’t seen since the late 1990s.And if you’re a homeowner or buyer in places like Surrey, you’ve likely felt that slowdown firsthand.

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Sales Fell Off a Cliff

Let’s put this into perspective.

• Fraser Valley monthly sales struggled to even reach 1,000 transactions
• Metro Vancouver recorded roughly 23,000 annual sales
• Both represent the lowest levels of the 21st century

That’s not just a slowdown.👉 That’s a major market freezeFrom what I’ve been seeing working as a realtor in Surrey, this hasn’t just been numbers on a report—it’s been real:

• Fewer showings
• More hesitant buyers
• Longer decision timelines

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What Caused the Slowdown?

There wasn’t just one factor.But one moment stands out:👉 Tariff uncertainty early in the yearWhen headlines started shifting toward:

• “Are we heading into a recession?”
• “How bad will it be?”

Buyers reacted immediately.

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Confidence Is Everything (Especially in Expensive Markets)

In high-priced markets like Metro Vancouver:👉 Real estate decisions require confidenceAnd when uncertainty hits:

• Buyers step back
• Decisions get delayed
• Activity drops quickly

This effect is even more pronounced in markets like Surrey, where many buyers are stretching financially to enter the market.When confidence disappears, so does demand.

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Investors Have Left the Market

One of the biggest shifts—and one that doesn’t get talked about enough—is this:👉 Investors are largely goneTypically, investors make up:

• 15–20% of real estate transactions

Right now?👉 That number has dropped significantly.

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Why Investors Are Sitting Out

The math simply doesn’t work anymore.Right now in BC:

• Expected price growth: ~2% (or less in some areas)
• Mortgage rates: ~4–4.5%
• Rents: declining

That creates a tough equation:👉 Low appreciation + negative cash flow = poor investmentAdd in:

• Increased regulations
• Multiple taxes
• Stricter landlord environment

And it’s no surprise investors are stepping away.

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Capital Is Leaving BC

It’s not just that investors aren’t buying here.👉 They’re going elsewhere.Markets like:

• Edmonton
• Calgary

Are offering:

• Positive cash flow
• Higher expected appreciation (4–5%)
• Lower barriers to entry

So both:

• People
• And capital

Are shifting out of BC.

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Why This Hits Markets Like Surrey Harder

This matters more in certain areas.In places like Surrey:

• There’s a strong mix of end-users and investors
• Pre-construction relies heavily on investor demand
• Entry-level housing is sensitive to financing conditions

When investors leave:👉 The entire ecosystem slows downFrom what I’ve seen working with clients in Surrey, this has had a noticeable impact on:

• Condo demand
• Pre-sale activity
• Overall transaction volume

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The Pre-Construction Problem

This is where things get even more important.Without investors:

• Pre-sale projects struggle to launch
• Developers delay construction
• Future housing supply shrinks

👉 Today’s slow market becomes tomorrow’s supply problem

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Key Takeaways

• 2025 was one of the slowest real estate years on record
• Sales dropped to levels not seen since the late 1990s
• Tariff uncertainty triggered a major confidence drop
• Investors have largely exited the BC market
• Capital is shifting to more profitable regions like Alberta
• Markets like Surrey are feeling the impact more directly

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My Take

From what I’m seeing day-to-day in the Surrey real estate market, this slowdown is very real—but it’s also very cyclical.

• Confidence dropped quickly
• Investors stepped out
• Demand softened

But these conditions don’t last forever.👉 They set the stage for what comes next.

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Final Thought

Real estate markets don’t just slow down randomly.They respond to:

• Confidence
• Economics
• Opportunity

Right now, all three are working against the market.But when that shifts—and it always does—markets like Surrey tend to respond quickly.And when they do, the people who understand what’s happening today are usually the ones best positioned for tomorrow.

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Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty