British Columbia is heading into another provincial election, with Final Voting Day scheduled for October 24, 2026. Elections BCBecause real estate represents such an important part of the BC economy, I wanted to answer a question that comes up every election cycle:Does a provincial election actually affect the real estate market?I went back through Fraser Valley real estate statistics surrounding the six provincial elections held between 2005 and 2024 and compared what happened to sales and prices before and after each election. Elections BC confirms those elections occurred in 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017, 2020 and 2024. Elections BCWhat I found was interesting.There are some patterns around elections, particularly with sales activity. But when it comes to predicting where home prices will go after October 24, history suggests the election itself may matter considerably less than most people think.
Trend #1: Real Estate Activity Often Peaks Around Election Time
The first pattern I noticed was that sales activity frequently increased during the three months leading into an election.That happened in five of the six elections I reviewed.After the election, the trend generally reversed. The median change in sales activity during the three months following an election was approximately 17% weaker than during the period leading into it.At first glance, that sounds like elections have a significant effect on buyer behaviour.But there's an obvious problem with that conclusion.Four of the six elections between 2005 and 2024 were held in May. The other two were held in October. Elections BCMay happens to fall directly in the middle of our traditionally busy spring real estate market.That means we're often comparing a strong spring market before an election with the slower summer market afterward.The October elections create a similar problem because we're moving toward the traditionally slower winter months.So while sales frequently decline after an election, we shouldn't automatically assume the election caused it.Seasonality probably explains at least part of the pattern.Trend #2: Elections Appear to Affect Sales More Than Prices
This was probably the most interesting thing I found.Three months after the elections I reviewed, sales had declined following five of the six elections.But prices had declined after only three.At the six-month point, sales were lower following five elections, while prices had declined following only two.And 12 months after the election, sales were lower in four cases, while prices had declined following only one.In other words, transaction volume often weakened after an election.Home prices didn't necessarily follow.That distinction is important because people often assume fewer sales automatically mean falling prices.History shows us that's not necessarily true.Trend #3: The 2017 Election Coincided With the Largest Decline in Sales
The most dramatic post-election slowdown in my analysis followed the 2017 provincial election.Sales fell approximately 29% over the following three months, 36% at six months and 34% at the 12-month mark.But we need to be careful about attributing that decline directly to the election result.The 2017 election produced 43 BC Liberal MLAs, 41 BC NDP MLAs and three BC Green MLAs. No party held a majority. The NDP subsequently formed government with support from the Greens. Elections BCMore importantly from a real estate perspective, the market was already going through a major cycle.Detached home prices had experienced an enormous run-up during 2015 and 2016, and significant housing policy changes were already occurring.So was the subsequent slowdown caused by the election?I don't think the statistics give us enough evidence to make that conclusion.The election happened during an already changing real estate market.Trend #4: The Same Party Can Produce Completely Different Markets
This is where the idea that one political party automatically creates a rising or falling real estate market starts to break down.Look at 2020 and 2024.Both elections resulted in BC NDP governments. Elections BC's final results show the NDP also won 47 seats in 2024. Elections BCYet the real estate markets following those elections behaved very differently.Following the 2020 election, Fraser Valley prices increased dramatically over the following year.Following the 2024 election, prices moved in the opposite direction.Same governing party.Very different real estate market.That strongly suggests we need to look beyond provincial politics when trying to understand housing prices.Interest rates, mortgage qualification, population growth, immigration, employment, inventory, affordability, federal policy and the broader economy can all have enormous effects on housing demand.Trend #5: Falling Sales Don't Necessarily Mean Falling Prices
This is another important lesson from the historical numbers.In 2005, sales declined after the election, yet Fraser Valley home prices were substantially higher a year later.Something similar happened following 2020.Sales activity declined while prices ultimately surged.How can that happen?Because the number of sales doesn't tell us everything about supply and demand.Imagine there are 10,000 buyers trying to purchase 5,000 homes.Then inventory falls to only 3,000 available homes.You could theoretically have fewer completed transactions while simultaneously experiencing more competition for each available property.Fewer sales doesn't automatically mean weaker demand.Sometimes there simply aren't enough properties available to sell.That's why I pay so much attention to inventory, new listings and months of supply rather than looking at sales numbers in isolation.So, Do Elections Actually Move the Real Estate Market?
After reviewing the numbers surrounding the last six BC provincial elections, I don't see a reliable pattern suggesting that provincial elections themselves determine where Fraser Valley home prices go next.Sales frequently decline following an election.But seasonality makes that difficult to interpret because BC elections have historically occurred during periods when the real estate market would often be approaching a seasonal slowdown anyway.More importantly, price movements have been inconsistent.We've seen prices rise substantially after elections.We've seen them fall.We've seen the same political party form government and subsequently experience completely different real estate markets.That's why I wouldn't make a real estate decision simply based on who wins an election.What Matters More Than the Election?
For me, the more useful indicators are the ones we already track every month.How many homes are being listed?How many are selling?How much inventory is available?How long are properties taking to sell?What percentage of listings are actually finding buyers?Are mortgage rates rising or falling?And most importantly, what's happening in the specific neighbourhood and property type you're interested in?Those numbers tell me considerably more about the immediate direction of the real estate market than the name of the party forming government.What Could Happen After the 2026 Election?
Nobody knows for certain.And the historical election data doesn't provide a reliable formula for predicting it.What we do know is that the Fraser Valley enters this election in a very different position from markets like 2005 or 2020.Sales are already at extremely low levels, inventory has been elevated, and prices have been declining.That existing market environment doesn't disappear on election night.For buyers, declining prices can continue improving the purchase-price side of affordability and create more negotiating opportunities.For sellers, a declining market makes understanding current value particularly important. Waiting simply because you expect an election result to change the direction of the market is a gamble that isn't supported by the historical pattern I found.Politics Matters, But It Isn't the Real Estate Market
None of this means provincial governments are irrelevant to housing.Provincial governments make important decisions involving housing supply, tenancy rules, development, taxation, infrastructure and property rights. Those policies can absolutely affect homeowners, renters, developers and the real estate industry.But that's different from saying an election result determines whether your house will be worth more or less 12 months from now.Looking back at the last six elections, I don't see convincing evidence of that.The biggest lesson I took from the exercise is actually pretty simple:Real estate markets are much bigger than election cycles.Interest rates, affordability, inventory, employment, population changes and the broader economy don't suddenly reset because British Columbians elected a new government.So regardless of what happens on October 24, I'll be watching the same thing the following morning that I was watching the day before:The actual real estate numbers.Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty