Real Estate Might Not Get Worse...

The latest Fraser Valley real estate statistics are out, and for the first time in a while, there are a few numbers that give me a tiny bit of hope.I want to emphasize the word tiny.Prices are still down. Sales remain historically low. And I don't think we can say the market has reached the bottom yet.But we're starting to see a couple of indicators move in a better direction.Let's look at what changed, and then I'll break down three of the stronger and three of the weaker real estate markets across the Fraser Valley right now.

Fraser Valley Prices Actually Increased Last Month

Let's start with the positive news.Across the entire Fraser Valley, the average residential sale price increased slightly last month, moving from roughly $940,000 to almost $945,000.Now, this is average price, not benchmark price.That's an important distinction because average prices can be influenced by the types of properties that happened to sell during a particular month. I generally prefer the Home Price Index when looking at longer-term price trends.But after watching prices move consistently lower, seeing the overall average price increase at all is at least noteworthy.I'm certainly not calling this a recovery. But it's a small change worth watching.

Sales Were Actually Higher Than Last August

The second encouraging number is sales.There were 941 residential sales across the Fraser Valley this August compared with 931 during August last year.That's an increase of approximately 1.1%.It doesn't sound like much, but I think the year-over-year comparison is more useful than comparing August with July because real estate is seasonal.August is traditionally one of the slower months of the year, so I would expect fewer sales than July.The fact that sales were slightly higher than the same month last year is therefore a small positive.

Fewer Homes Are Coming Onto the Market

This might actually be the most important number.New listings are declining.Active listings are also lower, both from last month and compared with last year.This matters because real estate ultimately comes down to supply and demand.If sales begin to stabilize while fewer new properties come onto the market, buyers slowly start consuming the existing inventory.Eventually, that can help bring the market back toward balance.It doesn't mean prices are about to start increasing. But it could mean some of the conditions that have been pushing prices lower are beginning to improve.

2026 Is Still an Extremely Slow Year

Before we get too excited, we need some perspective.Year to date, Fraser Valley sales are approximately 5.4% lower than they were at this point last year.That's particularly significant because last year was already the slowest year for sales in approximately 25 years.If the current trend continues, 2026 could finish as the slowest year in 26 years.We've had approximately 7,800 sales so far this year compared with nearly 8,300 during the same period last year.But here's where it gets interesting.New listings have fallen by considerably more.Approximately 24,500 new listings have come onto the market this year compared with almost 28,000 during the same period last year.So yes, sales remain terrible.But we're also adding substantially less new inventory.That's the little glimmer of hope.Things aren't necessarily getting better yet, but they may finally be showing some signs of not getting worse.

The Stronger Markets Aren't Exactly "Winners"

I wanted to take the statistics one step further and identify three areas that are performing relatively well and three that are struggling the most.I hesitate to call the stronger areas "winners" because prices are still down in all three.They're simply performing better than most of the Fraser Valley.And the differences between these micro-markets are significant.

#3: South Surrey Detached Homes

South Surrey detached homes are one of the relatively stronger markets.Benchmark prices are down approximately 7.5% year over year, falling from almost $1.8 million to around $1.6 million.Obviously, losing that much value doesn't feel like winning.But sales activity tells us something interesting.Detached sales in South Surrey increased approximately 33% compared with last August.More buyers are participating in the market, which is an encouraging sign even though prices remain lower.

#2: South Surrey and White Rock Condos

Condos in South Surrey and White Rock are also holding up relatively well.Benchmark prices are down approximately 6.2% year over year, while sales have increased by almost 27%.Again, we're not looking at rising prices.We're looking for markets where demand appears to be improving and where price declines have been less severe than elsewhere.By that measure, South Surrey and White Rock condos are performing reasonably well.

#1: Cloverdale Detached Homes

The strongest market in this comparison is Cloverdale detached homes.Benchmark prices are down approximately 6.2% year over year.A detached home with a benchmark price around $1.429 million last year would now be worth roughly $100,000 less.But the big story is sales.Detached sales in Cloverdale increased approximately 65% compared with last August.That's a substantial rebound in activity.Prices haven't recovered, but buyers are clearly participating in the Cloverdale detached market at a much higher rate than they were a year ago.

Now for the Weaker Markets

Unfortunately, some parts of the Fraser Valley are experiencing a very different market.This is why I constantly emphasize the importance of looking beyond broad headlines.You can have two neighbourhoods within the same city experiencing dramatically different conditions depending on the property type.Here are three markets currently struggling more than most.

North Surrey Detached Homes

North Surrey detached homes have experienced a significant decline.Benchmark prices are down approximately 11.5% year over year.A benchmark price that was above $1.4 million a year ago has fallen by more than $150,000.Sales did increase slightly, from 32 to 35, but that's not a particularly meaningful improvement considering the size of the North Surrey detached market.For sellers, this remains a difficult environment.For buyers, however, that decline could create opportunities that simply weren't available a year ago.

Mission Detached Homes

Mission detached homes are also having a difficult year.Benchmark prices have fallen by almost 12%, moving from approximately $1 million last year to below $900,000 today.More concerning is sales activity.Detached sales declined from 38 last August to 27 this August, a drop of nearly 29%.So Mission isn't simply experiencing lower prices. It's also seeing fewer transactions.That combination suggests considerably weaker demand.

Central Surrey Condos

The weakest market in this comparison is condos in the central portion of Surrey.And I want to clarify the geography because the terminology can be confusing.This isn't simply Surrey City Centre or Whalley. We're talking about the broader central portion of Surrey, including areas such as Sullivan, Panorama, East Newton, West Newton and Fleetwood.Benchmark condo prices are down approximately 11.2%.A condo with a benchmark value of approximately $520,000 last year is now closer to $462,000.But the bigger story is sales.There were only nine sales compared with 21 during the same month last year.That's a decline of almost 60%.For anyone trying to sell a condo in this part of Surrey, those numbers demonstrate just how important pricing and positioning have become.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For sellers, the message is that your specific market matters enormously.A detached homeowner in Cloverdale is experiencing a very different market from a condo owner in Central Surrey.Simply hearing that "Fraser Valley prices are down" doesn't tell you nearly enough.You need to know what's happening with your property type, neighbourhood, inventory and competing sales.The same is true for buyers.If you're looking in a weaker market, you may have considerably more selection and negotiating power.If you're targeting one of the stronger micro-markets, you may find that desirable properties are still selling relatively quickly despite everything you're hearing about the broader market.

Is This Finally the Beginning of a Bottom?

I'm not prepared to say that yet.Prices are still declining and 2026 is on pace to be an extraordinarily slow year for real estate sales.But there are finally a few encouraging signs.Sales were slightly higher than the same month last year. New listings have fallen substantially. Active inventory is beginning to decline. And average prices even managed a small month-over-month increase.None of those statistics individually means the market has turned around.But if we eventually see sales improve while new listings and inventory continue to decline, the balance between buyers and sellers should begin to improve.That's what I'll be watching over the next several months.For now, it's just a tiny glimmer of hope.But after the market we've experienced over the last couple of years, I'll take it.

Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty