Surrey Housing Prices & The Fall Real Estate Market (2026)

The summer real estate market is traditionally slow, and with the fall market approaching, I thought this would be a good time to take a closer look at exactly what’s happening in my hometown of Surrey, BC.The big question is whether there are finally signs that the market is beginning to recover or, at the very least, whether prices might stop falling.Unfortunately for sellers, I’m not convinced we’re there yet.For buyers, however, today’s market continues to create opportunities we haven't seen in years.

Surrey Home Prices Are Still Falling

Looking at the City of Surrey as a whole, including detached homes, townhouses and condos, the Home Price Index is approximately 7.9% lower than it was a year ago.You obviously have to be careful with a city-wide number that combines multiple property types. A detached home in Fleetwood can behave very differently from a condo in Whalley.That's also why I don't put too much weight on a single month's average or median price. Depending on which properties happen to sell, those numbers can move around dramatically.Instead, I like looking at a 12-month rolling average to smooth out some of that volatility.On that basis, Surrey prices are down approximately 4% over the past year.The bigger concern is the direction. After the huge run-up and subsequent correction, the market experienced a relatively stable period. But from around February 2025 until today, the overall trend has once again been down.

Sales Remain Historically Low

The number of homes actually selling might be even more telling.2025 was the slowest year for Surrey sales in approximately 25 years, and there is a very real possibility that 2026 could finish even lower.Sales are currently approximately 8.5% below where they were this time last year.And remember, we're comparing this year with an already historically slow year.It's even more remarkable when you consider how much Surrey's population has grown over the past 25 years. There are substantially more people living here today, yet we're approaching transaction levels we haven't seen in decades.Unlike previous downturns, we also haven't experienced a quick rebound. Instead, we've had a prolonged period of extremely weak sales.

There Is Finally Some Good News

If you're looking for signs that the market could eventually stabilize, there is one important positive development: fewer new listings are coming onto the market.Active inventory has also started declining.That's important because eventually supply and demand have to come back into balance. If fewer sellers list their homes while buyers continue purchasing existing inventory, months of supply can begin to fall.Unfortunately, we're not there yet.

Surrey Is Still Firmly a Buyer's Market

One of the most useful statistics for understanding the market is months of inventory.On a 12-month rolling basis, Surrey is sitting at approximately 8.6 months of inventory.For some perspective, during the 2008 downturn, that number reached approximately 8.5 months.I'm not suggesting today's market is the same as 2008. It isn't.What's important is how long we've remained at these elevated inventory levels. Surrey has essentially been in buyer's-market territory for close to two years, and prolonged periods of excess inventory can continue putting downward pressure on prices.Another way to see this is through the sales-to-active-listings ratio.Currently, approximately 11.5% of Surrey listings are selling each month.Put more simply: only about one in 10 homes on the market is selling each month.That's a difficult environment for sellers.

Buyers Have More Negotiating Power

We're also seeing significantly more negotiation than we've become accustomed to.Properties that sell are currently achieving approximately 94% of their original asking price on average.Some of that difference comes from price reductions before the property eventually sells. But even when we compare the final sale price with the most recent asking price, buyers are negotiating meaningful discounts.That helps explain why sellers are seeing so many lowball offers.But buyers also need to remain realistic.A buyer's market doesn't mean every seller is going to accept an offer 10%, 15% or 20% below asking. There are deals available, but most sellers aren't going to give their property away simply because the market is slow.

Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell

The average Surrey property that sold recently took approximately 48 days to sell.That's a major adjustment from the market sellers became accustomed to when homes regularly sold within days or weeks.A couple of years ago, I would generally tell a seller that if they hadn't received an acceptable offer within roughly 21 to 28 days, there was a good chance they were overpriced.Today, sellers need more patience.We could be returning to a marketplace where 60 or even 90 days on market isn't particularly unusual.The problem is that waiting in a declining market can be expensive. If your home sits for two months while comparable properties continue selling for less, eventually you may have to reduce your price simply to catch up with the market.

What This Means for Sellers

Selling successfully in this environment requires a different strategy.Your home needs to show extremely well. Your marketing needs to be strong, and most importantly, your pricing needs to reflect the market you're actually in.I would also be very hesitant to intentionally underprice most Surrey properties right now and simply hope that multiple buyers show up and bid the price higher. That's a strategy designed for a very different market.Interestingly, the properties we're successfully getting offers on are generally still receiving those offers within the first couple of weeks.Once you get beyond that initial period without an offer, however, the likelihood of needing a price adjustment increases substantially.

What This Means for Buyers

Could prices continue to decline?I think they could.But I don't necessarily think waiting for the absolute lowest possible price should be a buyer's only consideration.The biggest advantage buyers have today is time, choice and negotiating power.You can view multiple properties. You can compare them. You can conduct proper due diligence. You can negotiate and potentially walk away without worrying that every property will disappear overnight.There are better opportunities available to buyers today than we've seen in much of the last five or six years.That doesn't mean every property is a bargain. Some micro-markets remain surprisingly competitive simply because a lot of buyers want the same type of property in the same neighbourhood.

So, Is Surrey at the Bottom Yet?

My answer remains no, not yet.There are some encouraging signs. New listings are trending down and active inventory has started to decline.But sales remain historically weak, months of inventory remains firmly in buyer's-market territory, homes are taking longer to sell, buyers have considerably more negotiating power and overall prices are still declining.Until more of those indicators consistently begin moving in the opposite direction, I'm not prepared to call the bottom.For sellers, that means understanding that simply waiting doesn't guarantee a better price.For buyers, it means recognizing that today's market offers something we haven't seen much of in recent years: selection, negotiating power and time to make a good decision.And whether you're buying or selling, the most important thing is understanding your specific micro-market. Conditions can change dramatically between neighbourhoods and property types, even within the same city.

Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty