Condos Are the Best Performing Real Estate Asset? (Surprisingly… Yes)

There’s a viewer of this channel—goes by Green Bean Green Bean—who constantly comments that:“Condos are the best performing asset class in Canadian real estate.”And to be honest…👉 That’s not something you hear many people say out loudEspecially not in today’s market.But here’s the thing:👉 Green Bean is right.And I’m going to show you why.

---

The Metric That Actually Matters

To understand this, you need to look at something called:👉 The Home Price Index (HPI)The HPI doesn’t track raw prices.Instead, it tracks:👉 Percentage change over timeEverything starts at the same baseline (100), and then we measure how each asset class performs relative to that.That means:

• No bias from starting prices
• No distortion from dollar amounts
• Just pure performance

---

What the Data Shows

When you look at the Fraser Valley market since 2005:

• Detached homes (red line)
• Condos (purple line)
• Townhomes (green line)

You’ll notice something interesting:👉 Condos spend most of the time at or near the top

---

The Cycle Nobody Talks About

There’s a pattern in real estate that repeats over and over:

1. Detached homes take off first

This usually happens during strong economic growth

2. Condos lag behind

They look “boring” at this stage

3. Then condos catch up—and outperform

Affordability pushes buyers into the lower-priced asset

---

We’ve Seen This Multiple Times:

• Pre-2008 → condos lead
• 2015–2016 → detached explodes (foreign buyer era)
• Shortly after → condos surge
• 2021 → detached goes crazy again
• Then… condos follow

👉 Same story, different cycle

---

A Real Example (What I Did Personally)

When detached homes went vertical in 2021:👉 That was the signalNot to chase detached…👉 But to buy a condoBecause historically:👉 Condos follow—and often outperform shortly after

---

Why Condos Outperform (The Key Insight)

This is where Green Bean’s argument really hits.Even if:

• Detached and condos grow at the same percentage…

👉 The dollar impact is completely different

---

Example:

• Detached: $1,500,000
• Condo: $500,000

Both drop 10%:

• Detached loses: $150,000
• Condo loses: $50,000

Same percentage.👉 Very different outcome.

---

This Is Why Condos Win

On a percentage basis:👉 Condos often perform betterOn a risk-adjusted basis:👉 They perform even betterBecause:

• Lower entry price
• Lower downside risk
• More consistent demand

---

What This DOESN’T Mean

Let’s be clear.This does not mean:

• Every condo is a good investment
• Pre-sales at peak pricing make sense
• You can’t lose money

If you bought:👉 $1,400 per square foot in 2022…You may still be in trouble.

---

The Bigger Picture

Over the long run:👉 Lower-priced assets tend to outperformWhy?Because:

• More buyers can afford them
• They become the “next step up”
• Demand naturally rotates downward when affordability tightens

---

The Counterintuitive Truth

Even in a market where:

• Condos feel weak
• Headlines are negative
• Investors are pulling back

👉 They can still be the best-performing asset class

---

Final Thought

I didn’t expect to say this.But the data is the data.👉 Condos—on a percentage basis—have been the strongest performerAnd in many cases:👉 The smartest place to be.

---

Your Move

Do you agree?Or is Green Bean completely off base?

---

Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty