When Will the Market Get Better? (The Honest Answer)

This is the question I get from almost every seller right now:👉 “When is the market going to get better?”And I get it.Because the answer I give?👉 Most people don’t like it.

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The Reality Right Now

Prices are still coming down.And more importantly:👉 There is no clear sign yet that they’re about to turn.Now I know what some of you are thinking:“Of course you’d say that… you’re just trying to get me to lower my price and sell faster.”I understand that skepticism.But this isn’t opinion.👉 This is data.

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The Only Metric That Actually Matters

If you want to understand where the market is going…You need to understand one thing:👉 Months of InventoryWhat is it?It’s simple:How long would it take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales?Example:

• 3 listings
• 1 sale per month

👉 That’s 3 months of inventory

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Why This Metric Is So Powerful

Because it tells you the future.And more importantly:👉 It doesn’t change overnight

• Prices can bounce
• Headlines can change
• Sentiment can flip

But inventory?👉 Moves slowly… and tells the truth

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Where We Are Right Now

Across the Fraser Valley (including Surrey, Langley, White Rock, and beyond):

• Sales are DOWN ~5% year-over-year
• And last year was already the lowest in 25 years

Let that sink in.👉 We’re now below the worst year in 25 years

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The One Positive

Listings are down even more than sales.👉 That helps stabilize things slightlyBut it’s not enough to reverse the trend.

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Buyer vs Seller vs Balanced Market

Here’s how it works:

• 0–4 months → Seller’s market (prices go up)
• 4–6 months → Balanced market
• 6+ months → Buyer’s market (prices go down)

Right now?👉 We’re sitting around ~11 months of inventory

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Why Prices Keep Falling

Here’s the key insight:👉 It’s not just a buyer’s market👉 It’s a prolonged buyer’s marketWe’ve been stuck here since late 2024 / early 2025.And that’s the problem.Because:

• Short buyer markets → quick corrections
• Long buyer markets → slow, grinding price declines

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Absorption Rate (Another Way to See It)

Same concept, different view:

• 1 month inventory = 100% selling
• 2 months = 50%
• 3 months = 33%
• 9 months = ~11%

Right now?👉 About 1 in 9 homes are sellingThat’s it.

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Why Some Areas Are Still Doing Well

Here’s where it gets interesting.Not all markets are equal.

Strong Areas:

• Walnut Grove
• Parts of Willoughby

👉 Still near balanced or even seller territoryPrices holding — even rising in some cases.

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Weak Areas:

• Wall-E (investor-heavy condos)
• White Rock older condo stock

👉 These are struggling badlyBut for very different reasons:

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Wall-E:

• Overbuilt investor units
• Investors gone
• Oversupply

👉 Prices dropping hard

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White Rock:

• Older buildings (1970s–80s)
• Aging product
• Downsizer demand weakening

👉 Cheap units… but no buyers

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The Big Misconception

People say:👉 “The market is bad”That’s too simple.The truth is:👉 Some markets are bad
👉 Some markets are fine
👉 Some are still strong

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Final Takeaway

If you’re waiting for the market to “get better”:👉 You need to understand this:

• We are deep in a buyer’s market
• We have been here for a long time
• And inventory is still high

Which means:👉 Prices will likely continue drifting lower
👉 Until inventory comes down significantly

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What This Means For You

• Seller: Waiting likely costs you money
• Buyer: There are opportunities — but only in the right areas
• Investor: You must be extremely selective

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What’s Next

If you want to understand what’s actually selling right now…👉 Watch the next video where I break down the exact floor plans and properties that are still moving in today’s market.

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Written by:
Steve Karrasch PREC
Karrasch Real Properties Team
Macdonald Realty